Time Of Troubles

Time Of Troubles

Here I will add another indicator, see Indicators.

Anyway why this talk about the indicators of a civilization? Surely a pyramid or a ziggurat or a Chinese wall are strong indicators? Indeed they are! But the point is to find the clear signs of the developmental stages of a typical civilization. When does it start? When is feudalism, the absolute state, modernity? Who is the first universal emperor? These questions are also important for the judgment of the number of civilizations succeeding each other in an area. How can we say that Egypt had one, but Mesopotamia and China had two?

But to today’s point. The Time of Troubles as Toynbee calls it, the Warring States as Spengler terms it taken from the Chinese. This period is at the same time as the modernity phase. It can be regarded as the international aspect of this period, which sees strife and wars internally in and externally between the states. Until the first emperor finishes both.

Why did I not mention this as an indicator of a civilization? Well it is a very strong indicator if it can be seen with certainty. The problem is just that the pattern of wars between smaller states ending by them all being conquered by one state is not something abnormal in history. It can occur in all times and phases. So to be used as an indicator there must be other things pointing in the same direction. At least one of the following:

1. There must be clear signs of a modernity. More or less free thought, rationality, political ideological strife etc.

2. The wars must be large scale with organized bodies of troops.

3. We should be about 600 – 800 years after an feudal, epic heroic time and / or an early religious phase. This type of wars continues some time after the period, as the emperors use this type of warfare against the outside world.

Examples
Mesopotamia I: Between Ur III and Hammurabi, ca. 2000 – 1750 BC. Eternal wars between the states for hegemony. Modernity unclear, perhaps though the disrespectful treatment of the gods in Gilgamesh. But very organized warfare. And about 800 years after the epic time of the original historic King Gilgamesh.

Mesopotamia II: ca. 850 – 550. Original mythic time and the parallel modernity phase obscured, but the warfare very large scale and organized in the wars between Assyria, Elam and Babylonia.

Egypt: In Fact quite unclear. If the heroic and feudal times are around the time of the great pyramids, as it would seem from the records, then the Hyksos period should be the Time of Troubles or modernity. The use of large scale wars in Asia conducted by the New Kingdom would also point to this. There are no signs of a new feudal time after this and no new modernity follows.

Greco-Roman world: ca. 330 – 30 BC. Very clear picture of the parallel Hellenist modernity.

India I: ca. 600 – 300. Also quite clear signs of brutal large scale wars and a modernity. Also the required time after the Veda time.

India II.: Experts in this field can say more than I. I will just point to the very large mass-armies employed by the state Vijayanagar in the wars between more states up to the uniting of India by the Moguls.

China I. 500 – 221 BC. Very clear modernity with very large scale wars between millions of troops.

Less typical examples:

The Oriental-Arab Civilization. Ca. 750 – 1071. The problem here is that after the victory over the Byzantines at Manzikert, one major player was neutralized, but the infights continued. It was first the Mongols and Turks who united the Muslim world. Therefore Toynbee putting most weight on the external affairs, saw the modernity at a very late time, that is after Manzikert 1071. But the rationalism, philosophy and political ideologies are so clear in the first half of the Abbasid period, that modernity should be placed here.

China II. 950 – 1279. Song or Sung Dynasty. Abnormally peaceful internally and externally until the arrival of the Mongols.

____________

So under the right circumstances the Time of Trouble can be added as another indicator of a civilization. All the indicators mentioned lends support to these civilizations:

Mesopotamia I and II

Egypt

India I and perhaps II

China I and II

Greco-Roman

‘Oriental-Arab

The West

Indus and Peru can only be established as facts because their remains are there.

Mexico is a bit more clear. The feudal time is quite clear from the early inscriptions in the Mayan lands. Feudal lords fighting man against man. At the Spanish arrival there had for centuries been wars fought by organized troops.

Indicators of a civilization

This is just some quick notes on how to identify a civilization or high culture

Indicators of a civilization see civilizations

See also the continuation in Time of troubles

How do we identify a civilization or a high culture? How can we assume that there hvae been this or that civilization? Well we must look for parallels with other civilizations we know like our own. Especially find phases also seen in known civilizations. But if we want to be sure, certain phases should be excluded.

The time of absolute monarchy is difficult to use, because it is easily confused with the imperial rule at the end of a civilization. Of the same reason also the emperors cannot be used as an indicator.

Phases and high points of art are also a problem, because the evaluation of it is so subjective.

Feudalism could be a sign of an early phase of a civilization, but does not have to. It can occur at other times and places like in Japan after 1000 AD.

So what is left?

1) It is safer to look at feudalism in combination with an early heroic time as seen in epics, myths about heroes and other narratives. This is seen in

The West: King Arthur, Chanson de Roland, Nibelungenlied etc.

Greek-Roman civilization: The Iliad, The Odyssey.

China II: The material compiled in Romance of three Kingdoms etc.

India I: Veda.

Mesopotamia I: Gilgamesh, Lugalbanda, Enmerkar..

2) Another sign is the coexistence of feudalism with  a phase of religious intensity and speculation, theology.

The West: Scholasticism.

The Oriental-Arab civilization: New Testament and Christianity 0-500. Corresponding era in Parsism, Gnosticism, Manichaeism.

China II: Buddhism and Taoism 200-700.

3) The third indicator is the existence of a modernity with free and rational thought. This phase is unfortunately often difficult to see, because its history is typically written by the aftertime, which does not understand the radically different and revolutionary ideas. We are already approaching this condition, see http://polybios-2100.blogspot.dk/2012/10/la-condition-postmoderne.html. For more and more people, even educated, the ideas of 1968 and 1977 are becoming incomprehensible. In history writing after modernity, the fights about ideas in the modern phase are seen only as struggle for power.

But if we can see a modern phase, we can be sure, that we see a civilization in a late phase.

The West: 1789 to now.

Greek-Roman: Between Alexander and Augustus: Hellenism. Sciences rtc.

China II: Song Dynasty. Rationalism. Political thought.

China I: Warring States period. Philosophy. Hundred Schools. Political ideologies.

india I: Time of Buddha, where explicit atheism also existed. Buddhism was originally not religion, but it became one after the modernity phase as logos was replaces by mythos, see 4 Ahau - 3 Kankin ...

Oriental-Arab civilization 750-1100. Philosophers putting Allah under the law of reason.

4) the development of cities. Around the time of a modernity, the urbanization culminates with more large cities. New York, Paris, London, Rome Alexandria, Bagdad, Samarra, Babylon just to mention a few.

5) Change in warfare. In the beginning in feudal times cavaliers fighting man against man. In the West after the victory of infantry over chevaliers at the  battle at Sempach more and more focus on organized phalanxes. Corresponding in the development in other civilizations. The modernity times sees large infantry divisions.

So in conclusion we have 5 indicators of a civilization or high culture:

1) Feudalism plus epic heroic myths.

2) Feudalism plus religious intensity and theology.

3) A modernity.

4) Cities.

5) Wars carried out by organized phalanxes.

One could add, that if both 3) and 1) or 2) or both are seen, there should be around 6 or centuries between the culminations of the phases 1) / 2) and 3), between on feudalism with myths and religious intensity and on the other hand modernity.

Organized warfare and the growth of cities culminate in the modernity phases.

Civilizations

This blog is attached to the blog Polybios, polybios-2100.blogspot.com. It will occasionally bring historical overviews and arguments comparing different civilizations.

IS HISTORY A MONOTONE RISING FUNCTION OF TIME?

Is history a continuous rise in culture and technology?

Many historical schools seem to assume this, and indeed it is the shared view in large parts of the public, the industrials and the ruling circles in the world. Karl Marx had his view of a movement from slave society through feudalism, bougois rule and socialism to the ideal class less communist society. The liberalists (US language: conservatives) believe on an ever expanding more and more free market. Politicians in the west believe that democracy will develop and expand forever.

In these last two centuries the belief in an ever expanding production and ever higher levels of technology has dominated. . Almost everybody believes in and hopes for an eternal growth in GDP of not under 3 % and ever higher levels of technology. After LCD and plasma screens comes LED and then again something else.  After iPhone 5 comes 6, 7, 8 etc. etc.

All this is of course absurd. Will there ever  be an iPhone version 6.385?  And a  growth of 3 % per year in 1000 years would amount to in total a multiplication in production  by 7 trillion! Sooner or later the total weight of tablet computers would exceed the weight of the whole solar system!

But a simple look at history disconfirms the optimism as naive. Even the simplistic old picture Antique - Medieval - Newer time shows that history is not always a uninterrupted progress. The Roman Empire declined and was replaced by "the dark ages". Then the West rose.

Looking further at the past showws more examples of this: Old Mesopotamia and Indus are gone. So are old Egypt. And of course Peru and Mexico. In more of these cases as for example the Greco-Roman civilization, the fall happened about 1500 years after the start.

If we look at the development of the single civilizations there are obvious parallels. They seem to run through the following stages:

Preculture (500 years). Primitive preparation.

Feudalism (500 years). Pyramid feudal structure. Especially in the start knights, epics about heroes. In the start religious and mythic creativity, later on religious  reforms. The art is in the start primarily religious.

State of estates (150 years). The states are now more important than the feudal ties. The civilization now consists of a number of clearly defined states. The states are run by the nobles. The king has not yet absolute power.

Absolute state (150 years). The states are now under one king or other ruler (or as in England one absolute parliament). Art in highly complicated forms culminates.

Modernity (300 years). Intra- and interstate fights. Revolutions. Experimental art. Free thought, sciences. Political and philosophical schools of thought.

Cesarism. A de facto cesar no matter the official title wins inter- and intrastate power over the whole world known by the given civilization.

 All this seems to point to a parallel but time displaced development of many civilizations: my view is a combination of spengler and Toynbee which fits historical facts. I use the civilizations of the first and three of Toynbee’s. These three are new civilizations coming in the areas of earlier. Spengler regards these three as dead versions of the old. But it makes more sense to see them as new civilizations. They are the following: Mesopotamia II, China II and India II.

So the civilizations run parallel developments, but with a displacement in time.

Here is an overview of the 13 or 14 civilizations. All time spans are approximate. History is not an exact watch.

Civilization Time displacement	Preculture	Feudalism	State of estates	Absolute state	Modernity	First emperor (final battle) Cesarism
The West 0	500-1000	1000-1500	1500-1650	1650-1800	1800-2100
Oriental-Arab -1000	500 BC-0	0-500 Byzantines Parthians	500-650 Byzantines Sassanids	650-800 Umayyads	800-1100 Abbasids	1071 Alp Arslan Manzikert. Seljuks
-Greco-Roman -2100	1600-1100 Mycenaean	1100-600	600-450	450-300 Classic and postclass.	300-0 Hellenism	31 BC Augustus Actium
China II -800	300 BC-100 AD. Overlaps Han	200-700 Three Kingdoms etc.	700-850 Tang	850-1000 Tang	1000-1300 Sung	1279 Kublai Khan. Mongols and MIng
China I -2300	1800-1300 Xia	1300-800 Shang Zhou	800-650 Zhou	650-500 Spring and Autumn	500-200 Warring States	221 BC Shi Huang. Quin and Han
India II -500	0-500	500-1000	1000-1150	1150-1300	1300-1600	Akbar
India I -2400	1900-1400	1400-900	900-750	750-600	600-300 Philosophy Buddha	320 BC. Chandragupta. Mauryu
Mesopotamia II -2600	2100-1600 BC	1600-1100 BC. Hittites, Assyrians, babylonia	1100-950 BC	950-800 BC	800-500 BC Assyria, Babylonia, Elam	540 BC Cyrus. Persians
Mesopotamia I -3800	3300-2800 BC Eridu	2800-2300	2300-2150 BC	2150-2000 BC Ur III	2000-1700 BC Many states at war	1766 BC Hammurabi
Egypt -3650	3150-2650 BC	2650-2150 BC Old Kingdom	2150-2000 BC Middle Kingdom	2000-1850 BC Middle Kingdom	1850-1550 BC Hyksos	15 49 BC Ahmose. New  Kingdom
Indus -4000????						Around 1900 BC ????
Mexico -800?						1325?
Peru -600 ???						1470? Tupac Inca Yupanqui. Fall of Chimu
Russia  ??? +1000	1500-2000	2000-2500	2500-2650	2650-2800	2800-3100

The titel of Spenglers work is in German: Der Untergang des Abendlandes.

In English translated as The Decline of the West.

The German word Untergang has more drastic connotations than decline, as it seems to imply an outright extinction of civilizations. If one reads the book, it is clear that decline is a better word. This look is confirmed by looking at history.

The great Roman Empire declined and fell. So did Mesopotamia II and Indus. And indeed Peru and Mexico.

But Egypt. China II, The Oriental-Arab civilization survived for centuries.

Mesopotamia I, China I and India I gradually became transformed to new civilizations.

The fate of an old civilization seems to depend on the inner strength and the strength and existence of external enemies. Rome fell because of inner weakness and the German migrations.

Also if a new and radically different civilization is rising on the soil of an old one it can end the old one. This also contributed to the fall of Rome, because in its eastern part the Oriental-Arab civilization rose. This also ended Mesopotamia II.

This phenomenon can also give a complication for the new culture. Because if the old civilization is still strong, it can dominate the new one, which is then forced to develop in the forms of the old. This was the case for the Oriental-Arab civilization, which started in the forms of the Greco-Roman civilization.

Egypt, China II and the Oriental-Arab civilization all got a late time, respectively Late, Manchu and the Oman empires.

RUSSIA?

Spengler is quite sure that Russia will develop into a new civilization. Its precultural phase lies from 1500 to 2000, so this civilization would have a time displacement of 1000 years after us.

As our civilization is so strong, the Russians would have to involve in the forms of The West. From Czar Peter The Great and onwards a deliberate westernization was official policy. This was even intensified by the communists.

So will there be a Russian civilization? We don't know. The history before Czar Peter really looks like our preculture on Merovingian times. Ivan the Terrible (1530-1584) could look like one of the early Merovingian kings (from 480). Parts of genuine not westernized Russian church music sounds a bit like Hildegard Van Bingen. Finally Dostoevsky's writings sound like the Gospels in The Bible written in the corresponding time in the early Oriental-Arab civilization.

But even if we assume that a new civilization was underway, we do not know if it survives. Peter The Great, Stalin and now the total dominance by The West may have stopped the new civilization completely.

Let us hope this is not the case!!